Riding the Cycle of History Toward Transformation

Why does it seem like we’re living in turbulent times, as if society is on the edge of a profound shift? According to the Strauss–Howe generational theory, we’re entering a critical phase where history’s cycles demand transformation—forcing each generation to face its defining moment in the march toward renewal or collapse.

The Strauss–Howe generational theory, crafted by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, suggests that history is cyclical, moving in repeated patterns roughly every 80 to 100 years. This cycle, referred to as a "saeculum," consists of four distinct phases or "turnings": the High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. Each turning has a unique character, shaped by societal attitudes and collective generational personalities that influence the events, values, and behavior during that era.

The first turning, known as the High, is characterized by a period of optimism, unity, and rebuilding after a crisis. Typically, society experiences rapid progress and confidence in its institutions. After World War II, for example, the United States entered a High phase, marked by the Baby Boomer generation growing up in an era of economic expansion and national solidarity. This phase reflects a collective feeling of renewal, where institutions are strong and there is a widespread belief in the power of social organization.

The second turning, Awakening, sees a shift away from this collective unity, as people begin to question societal norms and the status quo. This period is usually characterized by a push for greater personal and spiritual expression, often leading to social movements that challenge established norms. The 1960s and 1970s in the United States, marked by the counterculture movement, civil rights activism, and questioning of authority, exemplify the Awakening phase. Generationally, the Baby Boomers—who grew up during the High—now became young adults, advocating for more personal freedom and social change.

Following the Awakening comes the Unraveling, a phase where societal institutions begin to weaken, and a sense of individualism overshadows the collective good. This phase often sees political polarization, a decline in institutional trust, and an overall skepticism toward authority. In the United States, the late 1980s through the early 2000s align with the Unraveling. During this time, society experienced economic deregulation, cultural fragmentation, and growing divides in political and social perspectives. Generation X, often known for their independence and skepticism, came of age during this time.

The fourth and final turning in the cycle is the Crisis, a period marked by upheaval and transformation, where societal structures are challenged and ultimately rebuilt. During a Crisis, conflicts—whether social, economic, or geopolitical—escalate, leading to substantial change. Strauss and Howe argue that the current era, which began with the 2008 financial crisis and continues through global challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, reflects this Crisis phase. In such times, societies often experience heightened risk but also the possibility of significant reform. This Crisis period, the theorists suggest, will give birth to a new High, beginning the cycle anew.

Strauss and Howe identify four generational archetypes that recur with each cycle, each defined by their relationship to the four turnings. These archetypes are the Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist. The Prophet generation, like the Baby Boomers, is born after a Crisis and grows up during a High, leading them to become moralistic and visionary as they seek to influence the Awakening. The Nomad generation, which includes Generation X, grows up during an Awakening, experiencing independence and skepticism, often becoming pragmatic leaders during a Crisis.

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The Hero generation, like Millennials, comes of age during an Unraveling, typically growing up in an era marked by a weakened social structure and lack of collective purpose. However, they are often called to collective action during a Crisis, ultimately emerging as the main agents of social reconstruction. Lastly, the Artist generation, which would include Generation Z, grows up in a Crisis, leading them to value order, consensus, and cooperation, making them instrumental in the establishment of the next High phase.

One key example of this cyclical pattern is the American Revolution, which Strauss and Howe identify as a Crisis period that gave rise to a new High in the early United States. Similarly, the Civil War and World War II served as Crisis events that redefined American society. These transformative events fundamentally altered the nation’s trajectory, rebuilding institutions, norms, and societal values in their wake.

The generational archetypes also help illustrate how these cycles are driven by the unique experiences of each generation. For instance, the Prophet generation’s idealism often creates the foundation for the Awakening, while the Hero generation’s collective mentality is crucial for society’s survival and rebuilding during a Crisis. In this sense, each generation’s qualities are both shaped by and contribute to the larger cyclical process.

Critics of the Strauss-Howe theory argue that it can be overly deterministic, assuming that history will continue in predictable cycles. Skeptics question whether these generational patterns will hold, especially given the rapid changes in technology and globalization. Yet supporters argue that the theory offers a valuable lens for understanding long-term historical trends and societal shifts, suggesting that while the specifics may vary, generational influences do play a significant role in shaping history.

Strauss and Howe’s theory has gained renewed interest as the world faces challenges that many believe signal the Crisis phase. The COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, and climate change have intensified discussions about whether we are on the verge of a major societal transformation. If their predictions hold true, the current Crisis could lead to a redefined social order, with Millennials and Generation Z leading the charge toward a new era.

In this context, the fourth turning represents not just a time of crisis, but also of potential renewal. Each turning, while unique, builds upon the previous ones, and the generational archetypes continue to shape society’s response to these recurring challenges. History, according to Strauss and Howe, is not linear but a constant renewal of society through conflict, transformation, and unity.

For those intrigued by the generational theory, the Crisis we are experiencing now could be seen as a pivotal moment that reshapes the world. Understanding the theory offers insight into how previous generations responded to crises and how today’s youth might drive society into a new High. Whether or not these cycles continue as predicted, the Strauss–Howe theory reminds us that generations are deeply interconnected, and that history often finds a way of repeating itself.

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